China’s foreign trade maintains resilience under policy support, local innovation, and regional cooperation promotion

First, the resilience of domestic local foreign trade has become prominent
Shenzhen and Xinjiang continued to maintain a high growth trend
In March 2025, Shenzhen’s imports and exports increased by 12.3% year-on-year, with exports reaching 218.53 billion yuan, growing by 6.3 percentage points faster than the national average. Among them, imports rose by 17.2%, demonstrating the coordinated efforts of domestic and external demands. In the first quarter, Xinjiang’s total value of foreign trade imports and exports reached 108.16 billion yuan, increasing by 15.4% year-on-year. The proportion of exports from Kashgar, Yili and other places to the five Central Asian countries and ASEAN exceeded 65%. Private enterprises contributed 94.7% of the total import and export value. The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 38.5%. General trade rose to become the largest trade mode for the first time.
The integration of domestic and foreign trade in Xiamen is accelerating
In April, Xiamen held multiple high-quality foreign trade product matching events to promote the expansion of innovative products such as “Nano Microbubble Cleaning Machine” and “Fujian Tour Chocolate” into the domestic market. In the first quarter of 2025, Xiamen’s export of mechanical and electrical products reached 57.99 billion yuan, increasing by 5.1%. Among them, the export of automobiles was 3.05 billion yuan, surging by 57.5%. The proportion of imports and exports to ASEAN, the United States and the European Union is 45.1%. The cross-border e-commerce platform “Foreign Trade Premium Products Network” has gathered over 9,000 kinds of goods for 517. In 2024, Xiamen’s total import and export volume reached 932.6 billion yuan, with an export growth of 11.3%. The China-Europe Railway Express covered 227 European cities, and the proportion of imports and exports in the free trade zone exceeded 40%.
Ii. Policy Implementation and Adjustment of the International Economic and Trade Pattern
Intensified policies to stabilize foreign trade and exploration of new trade models
The Ministry of Commerce has proposed to stabilize foreign trade in 2025 from three aspects: “strengthening policies, expanding increments, and assisting enterprises”. For the first time, it has included “new types of offshore trade” in the government work report and reduced enterprise risks through financial system innovation. During the Two Sessions, it was clearly stated that the opening up of the telecommunications, medical and other service industries would be expanded, the “Catalogue for the Encouragement of Foreign Investment Industries” would be revised, and the subsidy policy for trading in old electric bicycles for new ones would be extended.
The escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States and the reconstruction of supply chains
The US raised the “reciprocal tariff” rate against China from 34% to 84%, which led to a 45% decline in China’s sea container bookings to the US in mid-April. As a result, goods were piled up at the Port of Los Angeles, and importers turned to Southeast Asia and bonded warehouses to temporarily store goods. German experts point out that China’s trade dependence on the United States is low. If the long-term disputes persist, the overall foreign trade will only decrease by about 10%, and the United States may face a GDP loss of 1.12 percentage points 715.
Deepening Regional Cooperation and Global Trade Outlook
The 3.0 version of the China-Asean Free Trade Area is scheduled to be signed in 2025. Both sides plan to enhance rule alignment in areas such as the digital economy and green economy. It is expected that the super-large-scale market covering 2 billion people will stabilize the global industrial chain. In the first quarter, Ningbo issued 54,500 “Belt and Road” certificates of origin, with a total value of 16.095 billion yuan. Products such as photovoltaic inverters seized the Southeast Asian market through tariff preferences. The WTO predicts that global merchandise trade volume will decline by 0.2% in 2025, but China’s exports to regions outside North America are expected to increase by 4% to 9%, and service trade is expected to grow by 4.0%1314.
Iii. Optimization of Industry Structure and Breakthroughs in Emerging Markets
The export of high-tech products leads the growth
From January to February 2025, China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.4%, and the export value of integrated circuits was 180.44 billion yuan, growing by 13.2%. Byd exported 971,000 new energy vehicles, up 3.7%. In the first quarter, BYD exported 945 new energy buses, a year-on-year increase of 55%. It launched the high-temperature adapted model 2230 in the Middle East market. The export proportion of mechanical and electrical products in Xinjiang was 39.6%, and the export growth rate of flat panel display modules and general mechanical equipment exceeded 10%. 217
Transformation of Traditional Industries and Green Trade
Xiamen’s foreign trade enterprises have achieved the integration of domestic and foreign trade through technological empowerment (such as Guangpu Electronic air disinfection machines) and cultural creativity (such as Huawei Chocolate regional IP products). Qiuyedi camping equipment has transformed into its own brand by taking advantage of the domestic outdoor consumption boom. In 2024, the EU will import 12.7 billion euros worth of automobiles from China, with a year-on-year increase of 1,591%. However, the EU still maintains a trade surplus in automobiles with China, highlighting the deep integration of the industrial chain.
Fluctuations in trade of agricultural products and bulk commodities
In the first quarter of 2025, the import and export volume of agricultural products in China was 68.77 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. Among them, the import of grains decreased by 74%, while the export of edible vegetable oil increased by 1.7 times. The imports of border trade between border residents in Xinjiang increased by 136.6%, reflecting the vitality of border trade. Panyu District’s imports and exports to ASEAN and the Middle East increased by 25.3% and 38.1% respectively, and its auto exports soared by 127%, demonstrating the effectiveness of regional market development.
Four. Exhibitions and platforms drive trade innovation
The Canton Fair has sent out positive signals
The second phase of the 137th Canton Fair concluded, with 224,000 overseas buyers, setting a new record for the same period. Wenzhou enterprises have won intention orders worth 92.08 million US dollars. Europe, ASEAN and South America are the top three markets. Time-honored brands have attracted international attention through “national trend” products, with smart home and outdoor equipment becoming popular categories 242,531.

International exhibitions and regional cooperation platforms
Ningbo will host the 4th China-CEEC Expo in May, promoting the application of “paper gold” certificates of origin. Jinlang Technology and other enterprises have expanded their market share in Southeast Asia by 10% through tariff preferences. The Xiamen International Textile and Apparel Supply Chain Expo attracted over 40 leading purchasers and promoted the integration of domestic and foreign trade through the full-chain service of “production – supply – sales”.

V. Risks and Challenges
Uncertainty in global trade policies
The IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%. Trade policy uncertainties may lead to a loss of 1.12 percentage points in global GDP. Weak demand in the North American market has dragged down China’s exports to the United States by 1,516.
Regionalization and intensified competition in the supply chain
American importers have transferred some of their orders to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia, enjoying a 90-day tariff deferral. China needs to consolidate its advantages through technological upgrades and service trade (such as digital trade). 833
In conclusion, China’s foreign trade has maintained resilience under the impetus of policy support, local innovation and regional cooperation. However, it needs to address challenges such as tariff frictions and demand fluctuations, and accelerate its upgrade to the high end of the value chain.